J.J. McCarthy, QB

Measurements:

• Height: 6’2
• Weight: 219lbs
• Classification: Junior
• School: Michigan

Testing Numbers:

• Arm: 31 5/8”
• Hand: 9”
• 40: N/A
• Broad: N/A
• Vert: N/A

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Prospect Bio:

Contrary to popular belief, we actually aren’t pronouncing J.J. McCarthy’s name correctly. In fact, referring to phonetic spelling, it’s actually pronounced [WIN] + [UH]. As in winner, which is exactly what this young man has been his entire life, I’m talking way before Ann Arbor and way before IMG.

Aside from his play, McCarthy carries himself in a way that is either much beloved or hated, honestly, because he isn’t on your side. While he likes to contribute this level of moxy to his love for the late great Kobe Bryant and Bengals QB Joe Burrow. I’d like to believe this attitude took shape on the ice. Yes, before football was his mainstay, hockey became his first love. A love that was born from his mother, Megan, a competitive figure skater who had him on the ice at a young age.

“I started when I was like 5 years old, and yeah, I had to make a really big decision on if I was going to stick with the hockey route or the football route,” McCarthy said. “I kind of made that decision around freshman year of high school, and it was one of the hardest decisions I ever had to make.” McCarthy stated about the decision to switch over, a decision that was made as he entered his first year at Nazareth Academy. 

It was here that the legend was born. During his time at La Grange Park, McCarthy finished with a 28-2 record. One loss as a freshman, and the other loss in the 7A state title game in 2019 as a junior. That loss was his final game at Nazareth Academy, as the 2020 season was canceled in his area of Illinois due to COVID. Due to this, a transfer to IMG Academy down south was in his future. At IMG, McCarthy helped the team finish with an 8-0 record and a ranking as the best team in the nation. This allowed him to finish his high school career at an outstanding 36-2 with a state championship in 2018 to show for it.

The commitment was an easy one, to say the least. It definitely helps when your parents grew up Michigan fans and you have a great relationship with the head coach. While it took a while to earn the job outright, McCarthy continued to do what he does best: win games. In fact, he finished his career 27-1 as a starter at Michigan while collecting rights as the career program leader in interception rate (1.54), completion percentage (67.6), pass efficiency (160.5), and touchdown-to-interception ratio (min. 20 TD passes; 4.5:1).

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Career Stats:

Freshman

• Adj. Completion Percentage: 73.2%
• Yards: 516
• TDs: 5
• INTs: 2

Sophomore

• Adj Completion Percentage: 73.2%
• Yards: 2724
• TDs: 21
• INTs: 5

Junior

• Adj Completion Percentage: 80%
• Yards: 2991
• TDs: 22
• INTs: 4

Advanced Metrics:

Passing Pressure

• Freshman:
  • Kept Clean: 72.7% dropbacks — 79.5% Adj. Completion (2 TDs — 2 INTs)
  • Under Pressure: 27.3% dropbacks — 50% Adj. Completion (3 TDs — 0 INT)
  • Not Blitzed: 59.1% dropbacks — 69.7% Adj. Completion (1 TD — 1 INT)
  • Blitzed: 40.9% dropbacks — 78.3% Adj. Completion (4 TDs — 1 INT)

• Sophmore:
  • Kept Clean: 74.1% dropbacks — 76.3% Adj. Completion (16 TDs — 4 INTs)
  • Under Pressure: 25.9% dropbacks — 59.6% Adj Completion (5 TDs — 1 INT)
  • Not Blitzed: 62.1% dropbacks — 74.6% Adj Completion (10 TDs — 4 INTs)
  • Blitzed: 37.9% dropbacks — 70.8% Adj Completion (11 TDs – 1 INT)

• Junior:
  • Kept Clean: 69.5% dropbacks — 81.4% Adj. Completion (14 TDs — 1 INT)
  • Under Pressure: 30.5% dropbacks — 75.6% Adj. Completion (8 TDs — 3 INT)
  • Not Blitzed: 64.6% dropbacks — 81.9% Adj. Completion (16 TDs — 1 INT)
  • Blitzed: 35.4% dropbacks — 76.5% Adj. Completion (6 TDs — 3 INT)

Passing Depth

• Freshman:
  • Behind LOS:
    • 8-8 (100%)
    • 13.8% of attempts
    • Average Depth of Target: -4.5 yards
    • 20 yards
  • Short:
    • 12-21 (57.1%)
    • 36.2% of attempts
    • Average Depth of Target: 4.1 yards
    • 123 yards
  • Medium:
    • 8-17 (47.1%)
    • 29.3% of attempts
    • Average Depth of Target: 13.9 yards
    • 122 yards
  • Deep:
    • 6-10 (60%)
    • 17.2% of attempts
    • Average Depth of Target: 33.3 yards
    • 251 yards

• Sophomore:
  • Behind LOS:
    • 29-34 (85.3%)
    • 10.5% of Attempts
    • Average Depth of Target: -3.1 yards
    • 193 yards
  • Short:
    • 118-151 (78.1%)
    • 46.7% of Attempts
    • Average Depth of Target: 4.5 yards
    • 1117 yards
  • Medium:
    • 38-65 (58.5%)
    • 20.1% of Attempts
    • 14.7 ADoT
    • 613 yards
  • Deep:
    • 22-56 (39.3%)
    • 17.3% of Attempts
    • Average Depth of Target: 31 yards
    • 801 yards

• Junior:
  • Behind LOS:
    • 40-41 (97.6%)
    • 12.3% of Attempts
    • Average Depth of Target: -3.6 yards
    • 185 yards
  • Short:
    • 119-150 (79.3%)
    • 45% of Attempts
    • Average Depth of Target: 4.6 yards
    • 1114 yards
  • Medium:
    • 56-88 (63.6%)
    • 26.4% of Attempts
    • Average Depth of Target: 14.4 yards
    • 986 yards
  • Deep:
    • 25-46 (54.3%)
    • 13.8% of Attempts
    • Average Depth of Target: 27.2 yards
    • 706 yards

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Prospect Overview:

To say that J.J. McCarthy is the most polarizing prospect in the entire 2024 draft class would not be an understatement. Much has been made of the surrounding talent and how the offense was schematically approached, ultimately ‘capping’ the cycling of what McCarthy could truly be.

While some of these concerns can be true to an extent, I believe that it’s necessary to add the context behind this evaluation. Simply put, instead of valuing the quantity of passes, we should view the quality of the attempts and what he was able to do with those passes.

McCarthy is a playcaller’s dream with how he approaches the game. I wouldn’t say he’s a greedy guy; he has a natural reaction to take what the defense is giving him. I’d classify him as meticulous with his risks; it’s rare he takes them, but when he does, it’s very calculated. 
McCarthy does a phenomenal job operating within the system; his top half and bottom half are in sync, he goes through progressions seamlessly, and he understands what defenses are showing. 

He thrives in play-action and in the quick game, getting the football out on time and on target, and is aggressive with passes across the MOF. He typically has all the answers to the test, man; if you’re going to pressure him, he has no problem standing tall in the pocket and delivering a strike into some tight windows (see Ohio State ‘22 and ‘23). If you’re going to play zone, he knows what you like to do and where to attack—just ask Iowa.

I believe there is a playground element of his game that hasn’t fully been tapped into yet. McCarthy is effective passing on the move, making defenses pay with timely and accurate throws. He can also be a reliable rusher who will keep the defense honest and keep drives alive. 

While McCarthy typically won’t miss an open target, he doesn’t necessarily throw players open either. I would like to see him be more consistent in hitting his receivers in stride on passes down the field; there are times he makes receivers have to work harder than they have to. There are minimal concerns about his processing abilities; there was a game vs. Bowling Green where they showed one thing pre-snap and another late post-snap and were able to confuse him on multiple occasions.

With McCarthy, you have a guy who will efficiently operate your offense as it is today. I don’t think we’ve quite reached the point where you’ll win games because of McCarthy, and that’s okay because he provides plenty of upside to grow into one day.

That said, he damn sure won’t be the reason you lose a game. Kid is a natural-born winner, is coachable, and has a massive amount of untapped potential.

Cover Image Credit: Mark J Rebilas – USA Today Sports